Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Obamas new plan to curtail the U.S. deficit, tax multinationals

In order to curb our ballooning budget deficit we have now turned to taxing our own multinationals. These U.S. firms will have a difficult time staying globally competitive if forced to pay taxes on foreign profits and this is primarily due to our monetary system being used as a printing press. The new tax plan may cause companies to move their business out of the U.S and deter new businesses from domiciling here. This plan will eliminate American jobs not create them. The current rules put our companies on equal tax footing with those overseas, since foreign governments do not tax as high as we do. Their overseas operations support jobs in the U.S. Obama believes the new plan will stem the ouflow of jobs from the US but the jobs arent moving overseas because of taxes but due to the low cost of skilled labor that exists overseas. Foreign governments may also offer subsidies to any U.S multinationals to continue to outsource their jobs, this mitigates the tax impact to the mutlinational.
As long as we keep printing money to bail out failing industries the value of our dollar and our purchasing power will continue to decrease while inflation ticks higher.

thevoice@voicedup.com

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Voicedup dishes out on: Rambus, GM, Disney, Hulu

Quite time for Rambus. Much of the noise has subsided over the past few weeks in regards to their legal cases. September 26,2009 is the anti-trust case and the biggest catalyst of the year. Until then there should be no surprises and RMBS should trade similarly to the semiconducter index.

GM, another viability plan?
Could three times be a charm, ahead of a June 1 bankruptcy deadline. Among its latest cost-cutting efforts, GM will likely discuss elimination of its Pontiac brand, plans to reduce employees, dealers and plants, and efforts to accelerate planned cuts by as much as four years. GM is also expected to provide an update on its debt-swap efforts with holders of $27.5B of unsecured debt. What I really want to hear is the break up of the UAW/CAW union.

Disney to partner with HULU! I have one question. When do they start streaming ESPN?!?! Disney currently runs clips of shows on YouTube, most people would like to be able to view the full episode of their favorite show, hopefully they dont make the same decision with HULU.

thevoice@voicedup.com

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Thursday, April 23, 2009

Voicedup dishes out on: AAPL, Banks, GM, Credit Cards

Apple (APPL) sees no recession as Iphone and Ipods sales had another impressive quarter. Figures released this morning reveal that Germany and the US now lag China as the worlds largest producer of automobiles. McDonald's reports a stronger than expected Q1 and raises 2009 estimates. Capital needs for banks is scheduled for May 4, regulators are looking fr at least 3% tangible common equity or TCE. This measure shows what an owner of common shares would receive if the bank was liquidated. Keep in mind this measure does not differentiate between safe assets and toxic assets. Seems as accounting shenanigans but lets see what regulators come up with next. On a more worrisome note GM has all but confirmed that they will not be paying a $1Billion debt due June 1. Why is GM still on life support? Let them go! Then again if I can tell my credit card company I’m not paying my debt each month and the government injects me with cash I would not have a problem either. Obama will meet today with 13 credit card industry executives to discuss legislation that would prohibit credit card companies from imposing penalties and rate increases arbitrarily. Qualcomm (QCOM) was due to release earnings on 4/27/09 but has delayed this as they are inching closer to a settlement with Broadcom. Any settlement is a positive for QCOM.

thevoice@voicedup.com


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Monday, April 20, 2009

Market survey interest levels

A survey conducted by Citigroup amongst major institutional investors provided us with the following insight on todays markets:

Approximately two-thirds of the institutional investors indicated that they are looking to add equity positions to their portfolios, this number is 10% higher than the number from December. The favored sector is Tech and this sector has held the top position over the last 12 months. Growth stocks are also a hot item of late, the market sees the economy in a more positive view for the second half of the year and this should bode well for growth stocks. An additional upside of 6% is expected from current market levels to the end of the year. The majority of this optimism is due to the market rally since March, investors believe the market has bottomed. Regardless of the expected drop (approximately 20%) in earnings this year, a common consensus is the rebound in 2010 will be in the double digits.
thevoice@voicedup.com
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Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Capitalism kicked to the curb

While I have great pride in my country and its people at this time my sense of pride cannot extend toward my government and the current path on which it has embarked. This nation was founded on a very powerful and important contract, The Constitution. Throughout our existence, as a nation, it has demonstrated incredible genius and flexibility in its base structure, time and time again. When accepting this notion of contractual obligation as a foundation for our America, one can then begin to observe the erosion of this component and its effect on our society.

A free country consists of a free market made up of companies and contracts. Obligations made by sellers to buyers in an intricate chain. It’s also imperative to understand that while Wall-Street absorbs all the blame in this current crisis, WE THE PEOPLE = THE MARKET. By allowing companies that cannot fulfill their “contracted” obligations, to continue to exist, is a crime to the flow and freedom of the market and in turn, a slap in the face to the American people. Companies go out of business and new businesses begin everyday. It is part of the natural cycle of capitalism and the free market. However, capitalism, while allowing greed to manifest, is always tempered with fear. Fear of failure. Fear, that something must be done, BEFORE it’s too late. Fear of having capital to pay employees well before bankruptcy is even uttered. In short, fear that contractual obligations will not be met. By bailing out these failures, we hinder the market from its natural correction. Jobs are at stake during bankruptcies, but we must all understand that while our nation changes, jobs that existed in particular sectors may no longer be needed. Jobs will always be created in new sectors, this concept holds true in any economy. The auto industry is a good illustration. While there are productive and successful aspects of the autos, much of them exist as dead weight, exhausting valuable resources in our economy. Why not liquidate these aspects and resources being misallocated? Again, I understand this will lead to rising unemployment while the transition is made, but unemployment is rising anyway. By not giving up on these sectors, we stifle economic growth.

GM and Chrysler are having trouble because they cannot meet their obligations. This leads to less people (again, the market) willing to “deal” with GM and Chrysler. The buyer has spoken and has deemed much of what these two have to offer as not worthy of their investment. When GM and Chrysler lose a buyer, they go elsewhere, forcing the autos to reevaluate the options they’re giving to their consumer/buyer. This is the natural fear a business faces when dealing in a proper market. To reiterate, if this fear does not exist, why would the autos decide to change its ways now? Why give them more resources to squander on behalf of the American people?

In violation of our Constitution and at the heart of this matter, is a private corporation known as the Federal Reserve. This entity came in power back in 1913. It has become an unseen and unquestioned branch of our government, until recently (HR 1207). After mandating how important it was to shore up the many failing businesses, The Fed has given countless funding with little result. They are currently asking the Congress and Senate for the power to be able to go to any company they deem “unfit” and restructure them according to their own guidelines. While this may seem necessary now (ala AIG), I urge everyone to really absorb the ramifications of this endeavor. More government intervention further skewing the market, is far from what we need. Bailing out prevents necessary market correction, which leads to increased money supply causing inflation and diminishing purchasing power. We will not see this in taxes, as they refrain from directly raising taxes, but we will see it throughout the rest of the market in the form of rising prices as the overall value of our dollar is diminished. By taking the buying power away from the consumer we stray even further from true economic stimulation. In short, money = freedom. Less value on your dollar = less freedom.


baminc@voicedup.com

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Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Voicedup dishes out on: Yahoo, Taxes, BYD

Yahoo and Samsung have teamed up allowing Samsung televisions to stream Yahoos connected TV platform. By the end of this year LG, Vizio and Sony will have released new sets including Yahoo TV. Yahoos target audience just got a lot bigger.

A NY health official has called for a heavy tax on sports drinks, this coming a few weeks after Governor David A. Paterson withdrew his proposal for a soda tax. Is there anything that consumers can purchase which will not be heavily taxed? What's next? Water?

BYD, the worlds largest automaker? Warren Buffett believes their chances are good. BYD sells electric cars in China and in October became the bestselling vehicle in China, surpassing Toyota Corolla and Volkswagen Jetta. Currently BYD has a plug-in electric car that goes 62 miles a charge and sells for $22,000.00. Buffet purchased 10% of BYD last fall for $230 million. Keep your eyes out for a BYD near you.

thevoice@voicedup.com
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Wednesday, April 8, 2009

A year later followed by a 50% drop in the DOW, SEC to limit short sales

The SEC released five different proposals for reinstating the uptick rule. A rule that was in place for 70 years and worked was removed in 2007. The rule allowed short sales only if a preceding sale in a stock was followed by an uptick, this refrained short sellers from overwhelming a particular stock.

The SEC proposals:

* SEC staff recommends updated uptick rule proposal which would apply to all stocks

* SEC staff recommends bid test, where shorting would only be allowed on 'up-bid'

* SEC staff recommends 3 circuit breakers to curb short selling

* One circuit breaker would temporarily ban short selling of stock for rest of day if stock fell by 10 percent

* Another circuit breaker would trigger the updated uptick rule proposal for the rest of the day for the stock

* Third circuit breaker proposal would trigger the bid test for the rest of the day for the stock

This along with the updated mark-to-market rules should slowly begin to bring back some credibility to this market.



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Saturday, April 4, 2009

Mark-To-Market, the cause of the economic collapse

To most people, it's an arcane accounting rule. But to bankers, it's the whole ballgame: "mark to market" pricing is the practice of requiring banks to value their assets based on their current market value. Not what banks paid for those assets yesterday. Not what they could get for them in, say, a year or two when the financial industry has settled down. What they could get right now. Which is basically bubkes. Banks have been pleading for this requirement to be lifted since the credit crisis began, and last week they got their wish. Confused? Here are four things you need to know about "mark to market" in order to sound smart at a cocktail party.

1. Banks say mark-to-market pricing cost them billions.
When the housing bubble burst, the market for all those mortgage-backed securities vanished, leaving bank balance sheets larded with assets that no one wanted. So at the end of each quarter, banks had to write down billions of dollars of "toxic assets"—even though their value might've been artificially, and only temporarily, depressed. But if banks never intended to sell an asset in the current market, they reasoned, why should they be forced to value it as if they did?

2. The key players: five big-shot accountants in Connecticut.
Banks began lobbying Congress last year to do away with mark-to-market, arguing that they couldn't lend because it had bled away so much capital. Congress in turn put the heat on the Financial Accounting Standards Board, a group of five über-accountants based in Connecticut who write all the rules. After months of pressure, including threats to take away its authority, the FASB caved and voted to loosen the rule.

3. The new guidelines, and the fly in the ointment.
Banks can now use "significant judgment" to value assets. Translation: they can stop assigning doomsday values to securities they think will have more value down the road. The hitch: some investors fear the rule change will help banks disguise their garbage, which was part of what got us into this mess in the first place.

4. Bully for the banks, but will this actually work?
It'll help big banks like Citi recoup billions in losses. But it does little to solve the underlying problem: piles of troubled assets no one wants. And it might not help for long, because Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner plans to rebuild a market for the assets by handing private investors cheap credit so they can start buying them up.

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/192562

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Friday, April 3, 2009

Blockbuster Amends Revolving Credit

* Before market open Friday morning, Blockbuster announced that it finalized the amendment of its revolving and term loan facility. This amendment includes commitments from lenders (JPMorgan, Monarch Alternative Capital, and Silver Point Capital) for a $250 million revolving loan refinancing due September 30, 2010.
* This news was expected, and has been in the works over the past six months. The company currently has $160 million due on these loans in August 2009, and at that time its total revolver of $300 million was scheduled to end.
* Refinancing is positive as it provides the company with increased liquidity (even if only for an extra year). The company has sufficient free cash flow to pay down the credit facility in full by September 2010, and will have the flexibility to allow the facility to expire at that time if it should so choose.
* Blockbuster's valuation is compelling and there is no imminent risk of bankruptcy, as its stock price implies. Blockbuster's stock should appreciate as management continues to execute. The company's enterprise value is just under 3x its EBITDA, and EBITDA is exprected to be flat to up in the coming year. Management team should continue to bolster the balance sheet, and expect the shares to trade up to a more reasonable 4x EV/EBITDA multiple over the coming year.
* Maintaining STRONG BUY and 12-month price target of $2.50, which reflects a multiple of 4x our 2009 EBITDA estimate of $320 million. This multiple is less than half of Blockbuster's historical multiple, reflecting recent market contraction, credit concerns and execution risks.

Price Target: $2.50

UPDATED LINK http://www.wedbush.com/ResearchDisclosure/DisclosureQ408.pdf
From: WEDBUSH MORGAN SECURITIES

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Thursday, April 2, 2009

FASB eases mark-to-market accounting

The FASB agreed to give banks more flexibility in applying mark-to-market accounting to their toxic assets.

Action came after Congressional pressure to help banks that have been forced to record billions of dollars in lower values for distressed assets because of frozen markets.
Some investors opposed the change, saying it would let big banks conceal the real value of their toxic assets. How is an asset that a bank will not be selling a toxic asset and why should it be marked down today? These assets are expected to remain on banks balance sheets for the foreseeable future.

KEY POINTS:
* FASB allows banks to apply new mark-to-market guidance in the first quarter of 2009.
* FASB says the objective of mark-to-market accounting is to set a price that would be received by a bank in an "orderly" transaction in the current, inactive market. It says an "orderly" transaction for accounting purposes does not include the forced liquidation or a distressed sale of an asset.
* FASB agrees to drop the presumption in mark-to-market accounting that all transactions in an inactive market are distressed unless proven otherwise.
* FASB clarifies when banks are required to take write downs on impaired assets, letting them record smaller losses on their income statements.

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Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Voicedup dishes out on: GM, Google, FASB, Smoking

GM, the only way to rid yourself of the overcompensated UAW and pension benefits is through bankruptcy...JUST DO IT! Read more here: BLOOMBERG

Google ventures starts up with $100 million. Main objective, turn a profit by finding promising startups in areas like the Internet, clean technology and life sciences. Read more here: NYTIMES

FASB to vote on new guidance for mark to market rules on Thursday. The Financial Accounting Standards Board is scheduled to vote Thursday on giving auditors more flexibility in valuing illiquid mortgage assets that may have a long term value and strong cash flow - in other words they are not distressed assets, but they can't be sold in the markets today. The new guidance would alter so called mark-to-market rules, which require banks and other corporations to assign a value to an asset, such as mortgage securities, credit-card debt or student-loan investments, based on the current market price for either the security or a similar asset. Large banks such as Citigroup Inc. (C) would get "the lions' share" of the revaluation profits because they are stuck with a disproportionately large amount of the illiquid mortgage and other securities. Source: DJ

Smoking is bad! Cigarettes Top $9 a Pack in City starting today. Read more here: NYTIMES


thevoice@voicedup.com

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Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Voicedup dishes out on: Inflation, Uptick rule, Home sales, Geithners plan, Science, Autos

Inflation does exist! Nevermind that's so next year. Read more here: FORBES

Uptick rule- SEC is still working on it, their scheduled to meet April 8 to discuss further. What exactly is taking so long? Read more here: REUTERS

Home sales rose for February 5.1% from last month. Is that not expected since most listings are in foreclosure and selling below fair market value? Read more here: REALTOR

Treasury's press release on Geithners toxic asset plan, details matter.
Read more here: TREASURY.GOV


Obama's science team? Looks like the government is working on something else besides bailouts. Read more here: NYTIMES

55.5 miles per gallon for $2,320. Big three, good luck competing. Read more here: NYTIMES
thevoice@voicedup.com
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Friday, March 20, 2009

Voicedup dishes out on: Politicians laughable antics, Cramers got balls, Toxic Assets going where?

Politicians wasting time on last years bonuses?!
Convening over last years bonuses by the administration should not be the current focal point of the government. "The House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved a bill to levy a 90% tax on bonuses at AIG and other firms receiving federal bailouts. The measure passed 328-93 and now heads to the Senate, where lawmakers have suggested a 70% tax paid half by employees and half by the companies." What should be discussed is the negotiation of the new bonus structure for employees and not paying cash bonuses on gains that can be manipulated by mark to market rules. The amendment of mark to market rules is still the cause of this debacle! Lets be clear, AIG should not be paying out bonuses as they are really in receivership and the notion that they need to retain their top talent is laughable. No top talent will remain with AIG once their bonus is in their checking account. In addition there isn't a company in the world that will want to be part of
a deal with AIG. Not to mention the US government will not allow them to take on risk, with no risk there can be no excess profits. All lucrative deals require some sort of risk.

Cramer has balls!
I give credit to Cramer for going on the Stewart show even though he knew he would be grilled. What made it worse was Santellis refusal to be interviewed after his comment on CNBC which he placed the blame on only the average American for the current meltdown. Cramer is not alone, financial analysts are just as guilty of being co-conspirators in this mess. Stewarts interview brought to the forefront the deception and indecencies that truly is the face of todays American business. Cramer didn’t put up a fight only because he knew Stewart was correct in everything he said. Stewarts incisive journalism was so captive primarily due to his comedic stature. He is able to inquire and opine on events without disdain. Of course it doesn’t hurt that these were not Stewarts opinions but facts. I am shocked that corporate TV allowed this to air, as we all know the corporations only want to show what is beneficial to their bottom line.

The stock market is an elaborate legalized form of gambling, if you are not in a position to play stay away, its really simple. Cramer was a hedge fund manager, he provides his opinions on the market, that’s it. He is not responsible for adjusting anyones 401K or providing an asset allocation model that fits an individuals specific tolerance level. There are many shows that provide such advice and plenty of firms. Anyone placed in Cramers position didn't stand a chance.

TALF buys toxic assets
The Federal Reserve launched its Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility and received requests for $4.7B of financing. According to the Federal Reserve, investors asked for $1.9B in loans to buy securities backed by auto loans and $2.8B for debt connected to credit card loans. Officials hope that figure will ultimately reach as high as $1T, as they're counting on TALF to unfreeze credit and help bring an end to the recession. Fed and Treasury officials are expanding the program to include leases of business equipment and other types of loans. In simpler terms banks are able to shift the toxic assets off their balance sheets over to investors who believe they can profit from them. In return banks receive cash that they will proceed to lend out, probably to more people that cant pay it back.

thevoice@voicedup.com
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Thursday, March 19, 2009

Peter Schiff: Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One!

Peter Schiff president of Euro Pacific Capital inc., explanation here

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Voicedup dishes out on: Rambus, Short sellers, Banks, Iphone, Obama, California

Rambus could receive up to 4 billion. Mark your calendars, September 28th, 2009 is the start date for the antitrust case. This will be huge once underway, speculation has been that this will get settled out of court with a price tag north of 4 billion dollars. This would bring the company's value to $50.00. Read more here: Seeking Alpha

Kill the shorts, reinstate the uptick rule. Senator Ted Kaufman, in First Bill, looks to reinstate uptick rule. On floor, again calls on SEC to return to rule that served market well for 70 years. Read more here: Senator Kaufman

Banks bubble! Mark to market could be easing soon, its about time! Read more here: CNBC

Iphone finally gets cut and paste, just not until the summer (plus another 100 features). What exactly took so long? Read more here: NYTIMES

And the presidents picks for the final four: Memphis, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and North Carolina. Read more here: ESPN

Buy a new car, get cash back! The bill, introduced Tuesday by Rep. Betty Sutton, D-Ohio, would provide on -the-spot vouchers between $3,000 tp $7,500 to consumers who trade in older vehicles for new, more fuel-efficient
The bill, introduced Tuesday by Rep. Betty Sutton, D-Ohio, would provide on- the-spot vouchers bet cars and trucks. The size of the vouchers would vary, depending on the fuel economy of the car being purchased. Read more here: CNN

Worst state to start a business.....California. Read more here: NYTIMES

thevoice@voicedup.com
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